Dynamics of urbanization: the empirical validation of the replacement hypothesis

A model of urbanization based on the 'replacement hypothesis' is presented. The model is empirically validated from cross-sectional time-series data from eleven countries and the fits are found to be extremely good. Intercountry variations in the growth of urbanization are explained on the basis of the structure of the economy as reflected in the sectoral composition of the national output. The phenomenon of urbanization exhibits remarkable resilience in its growth trajectory. The model is also used to make projections of urbanization for the countries studied.