Econometric Analysis of the impact of inflation, unemployment, and economic growth on poverty reduction: A novel application of Asymmetric technique

This study conducts an econometric analysis using time series data from 1980 to 2021 to examine the relationship between explanatory factors and poverty in Nigeria. The study employs both short-run and long-run estimates through the Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributive Lag (NARDL) approach. By utilizing a comprehensive dataset and applying various econometric methodologies, the study aims to provide reliable results. The findings suggest that in the short run, inflation, unemployment (positive and negative shocks), and population significantly influence poverty rates in Nigeria. However, these effects are not statistically significant at conventional levels. In the long run, population growth, unemployment, and inflation (negative shock) do not have a substantial impact on poverty. On the other hand, economic growth, as measured by GDP growth, demonstrates a positive relationship with poverty reduction. The analysis indicates that sustained economic growth leads to lower poverty rates over the long term. Based on these results, the study emphasizes the importance of promoting sustainable economic growth as a key strategy for poverty reduction in Nigeria. Policy measures that focus on job creation, inflation control, and investment in human capital development are crucial for poverty alleviation. Additionally, addressing the specific needs of vulnerable populations and regions with high poverty rates should be prioritized. This study contributes to the existing literature by providing empirical evidence on the relationship between explanatory factors and poverty in Nigeria. The findings underscore the significance of a comprehensive approach that combines inclusive economic growth with targeted policies to address the structural factors underlying poverty.