An Econometric Model for Analysis and Forecasting of Final Consumption Expenditure Components in the Republic of Belarus: Conceptual and Methodological Approaches, Estimation Results

An econometric model has been developed and tested on the base of 1996-2007 quarterly statistical information. The model represents a system of simultaneous equations for the final consumption structure, quantitative dynam-ics analysis, and short-term forecasting broken down into final consumption expenditure components: households, government organizations and non-profit institutions taking care of households. It has satisfactory qualitative char-acteristics and is substantiated according to economics and econometric principles. The model can be applied for social economic development forecast in the Republic of Belarus, scenario forecasting, various economic policy analyses