Economic forecasting : an introduction

K. Holden, D.A. Peel, and J.L. Thompson

This book provides an introduction to the methods employed in forecasting the future state of the economy. It provides a comprehensive coverage of methods and applications in this fast-growing area and is intended for use in postgraduate and upper-level undergraduate courses. Part I outlines the available techniques, particularly those used in business forecasting and econometric forecasting. The state of the art in time series modelling is reviewed and includes a discussion of Box-Jenkins models, the vector autogressive approach and cointegration. Ways of combining forecasts are also examined in detail. Part II considers the most important applications of forecasting. Applications in microeconomics include demand and sales forecasting, the use of anticipations data, leading indicators and scenario analysis. In macroeconomics the emphasis is on why errors occur in forecasting asset market prices, including implications of the efficient markets hypothesis for foreign markets, stock market prices and commodity market prices. The book ends with a discussion of the appropriateness of various techniques, recent developments in forecasting, and the links between economic forecasting and government policy

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Year of publication:	1990
Authors:	Holden, Kenneth ; Peel, David ; Thompson, John L.
Publisher:	Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
Subject:	Theorie \| Theory \| Wirtschaftsprognose \| Economic forecast \| Prognoseverfahren \| Forecasting model
Description of contents:	Table of Contents [gbv.de] ; Description [zbmath.org]

Extent:	1 Online-Ressource (ix, 213 pages) digital, PDF file(s)
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Language:	English
Notes:	Title from publisher's bibliographic system (viewed on 05 Oct 2015) Techniques -- Introduction to forecasting methods -- Why forecasts are needed -- Methods of forecasting -- A review of business forecasting techniques -- Econometric forecasting -- Evaluating forecasts -- Time-series methods -- Stochastic models of time series -- Box-Jenkins modelling -- A worked example -- Vector autoregression models -- Cointegration -- Deterministic and stochastic trends -- Non-linear time series -- Combining forecasts -- The variance-covariance method -- The regression method -- Serial correlation problems -- Other methods of combination -- Practical suggestions for combining forecasts -- The Makridakis forecasting competition -- Applications -- Microeconomic forecasting -- Demand forecasting -- Sales and market share forecasting for companies -- Anticipations data and leading indicators -- Scenario analysis -- Other techniques -- Forecasting with macroeconomic models -- Nature of macroeconomic models -- A simple macroeconomic model -- Preparing the forecast -- Judgmental adjustments and forecast errors -- Forecasting the 1980-1982 recession -- Decomposition of macroeconomic forecasts -- Accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts -- Forecasting asset market prices -- The efficient markets hypothesis -- Foreign exchange markets -- Stock market prices -- Commodity prices -- The choice between different techniques -- Current developments -- Economic forecasting and government policy.
ISBN:	978-0-511-62860-3 ; 978-0-521-35612-1 ; 978-0-521-35692-3
Other identifiers:	10.1017/CBO9780511628603 [DOI]
Source:	ECONIS - Online Catalogue of the ZBW

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015624150