Economic impact of oil price shocks on the Turkish economy in the coming decades: A dynamic CGE analysis
As a small open economy, Turkey depends on both imported oil and natural gas, importing almost two-thirds of its primary energy demand. This paper analyzes the economic effects of oil price shocks for Turkey as a small, open oil- and gas-importing country. To analyze the potential long-term effects of oil price shocks on macroeconomic variables of interest, including GDP, consumer price inflation, indirect tax revenues, trade balance, and carbon emissions, we developed TurGEM-D, a dynamic multisectoral general equilibrium model for the Turkish economy. Using TurGEM-D, we analyzed the impact of oil price shocks under three distinct scenarios: reference, high and low oil prices. The simulation results show that these oil prices have very significant effects on macro indicators and carbon emissions in the Turkish economy.
Year of publication: |
2011
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Authors: | AydIn, Levent ; Acar, Mustafa |
Published in: |
Energy Policy. - Elsevier, ISSN 0301-4215. - Vol. 39.2011, 3, p. 1722-1731
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Publisher: |
Elsevier |
Keywords: | Oil price shocks Dynamic CGE Turkish Economy |
Saved in:
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