Effect of health system performance on volatility during the COVID-19 pandemic : a neural network approach

The study proposes an assessment of the link between the performance of national health systems and volatility during the COVID-19 pandemic. Data from the World Health Organization was accessed regarding the Global Health Security Index of the states considered in the analysis as well as the categories based on which it is determined. To characterise volatility, a representative stock market index was considered for each of the 60 states analysed. Data processing was carried out using an artificial neural network. The main results show that: i) before the pandemic, the link between market volatility and the performance of national health systems was weak; ii) during the pandemic, the connection between the two variables is much stronger; iii) between the six categories that define the Global Health Security Index, norms, health, and prevention had the greatest influence on volatility.