Effect of short-term risk-aversive dispatch on a complex system model for power systems

In the analysis of time series of blackouts a powerlaw dependency of blackout size with respect to frequency hasbeen observed. It has been hypothesized that this behaviour is theresult of the power system operating near critical points. Modelshave been created in order to analyze this type of behaviour inpower systems. In this paper the effect of conservative versus nonconservativegeneration dispatch is studied using one such model.Conservative dispatches are ones that are performed in order tominimize stress on the system and therefore attempt to minimizepossible outages and blackouts. This dispatch is compared with anon-conservative dispatch that attempts to maximize the stressand therefore increase the immediate risk of outages andblackouts. It is found that the non-conservative dispatch althoughattempting to maximize the immediate risk reduces the frequencyof blackouts of all sizes over the conservative dispatch in the longterm.