Effects of amount of information on judgment accuracy and confidence
When a person evaluates his or her confidence in a judgment, what is the effect of receiving more judgment-relevant information? We report three studies that show when judges receive more information, their confidence increases more than their accuracy, producing substantial confidence-accuracy discrepancies. Our results suggest that judges do not adjust for the cognitive limitations that reduce their ability to use additional information effectively. We place these findings in a more general framework of understanding the cues to confidence that judges use and how those cues relate to accuracy and calibration.
Year of publication: |
2008
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Authors: | Tsai, Claire I. ; Klayman, Joshua ; Hastie, Reid |
Published in: |
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. - Elsevier, ISSN 0749-5978. - Vol. 107.2008, 2, p. 97-105
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Publisher: |
Elsevier |
Keywords: | Judgment Confidence Accuracy Football Overconfidence Calibration |
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