Equilibrium Exchange rates and Time-Consistent Policies : Stressing the Importance of Policymakers Preferences (in French)

Equilibrium exchange rate theories make the assumption that the Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate (RER) is independent from internal equilibrium and economic policies. We develop a model in which economic policies depend on the minimisation of an intertemporal loss function, and we show that in a Wage Setting-Price Setting (WS-PS) framework, the RER depends on the policymakers' objectives, making the previous assumptions highly questionable. In our model, the long run (equilibrium) real exchange rate is contingent on policymakers' preferences, implying that equilibrium exchange rate estimates must be treated with caution