Estimarea cursului de schimb real de echilibru in România

This paper estimates using econometric techniques the equilibrium exchange rate in Romania based on fundamentals. The cointegration technique lead to the conclusion that an increase in relative prices differential between Romania and Euro zone and an increase in net foreign assets of the banking system appreciate the equilibrium exchange rate. Based on estimation of the equilibrium exchange rate, the actual exchange rate in Romania had periods of overvaluation and periods of undervaluation. On short term the undervaluation of the exchange rate has positive effects on trade balance, but on long term perspective the situation should be seen carefully. The paper assesses also the impact of the deviation of the exchange rate from equilibrium on the Romania’s future participation to ERM2.