ESTIMATING INSECTICIDE APPLICATION FREQUENCIES: A COMPARISON OF GEOMETRIC AND OTHER COUNT DATA MODELS

The number of insecticide applications made by an apple grower to control an insect infestation is modeled as a geometric random variable. Insecticide efficacy, rate per application, month of treatment, and method of application all have significant impacts on the expected number of applications. The number of applications to control a given insect population is dependent on the probability of achieving successful control with a given application. Results suggest that northeastern growers have the highest and mid-Atlantic growers the lowest probability of controlling an infestation with a given application. Results also indicate that scales require the least and moths the most number of applications. Growers are not responsive to per unit insecticide prices, but respond negatively to insecticide toxicity, supporting findings from previous pesticide demand analyses.