Estimating the effect of AfCFTA on intra-African trade using augmented GE-PPML

Hippolyte Fofack, Richman Dzene, Omar A. Mohsen Hussein

This paper draws on a general equilibrium poisson pseudo maximum likelihood model augmented by a dynamic capital accumulation to estimate the effects of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) on intra-African trade flows. The empirical results show that the AfCFTA could raise intra-African trade by 24% in the short term and slightly more in the long run. However, the potential trade and welfare gains associated with the continental trade integration reform are expected to vary across countries, with the largest gains accruing to countries that exhibit relatively low intra-regional trade performance and level of integration pre-AfCFTA.

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Year of publication:	2021
Authors:	Fofack, Hippolyte ; Dzene, Richman ; Mohsen Hussein, Omar A.
Published in:	Journal of African trade : official journal of the African Export-Import Bank. - Cairo, Egypt : African Export-Import Bank, ISSN 2214-8523, ZDB-ID 2819885-2. - Vol. 8.2021, 2, p. 62-76
Subject:	AfCFTA \| GEPPML \| International trade agreements \| CGE \| MRT \| RTA \| Handelsabkommen \| Trade agreement \| Afrika \| Africa \| Regionale Wirtschaftsintegration \| Regional economic integration \| Freihandelsabkommen \| Free trade agreement \| Allgemeines Gleichgewicht \| General equilibrium \| Welt \| World \| Theorie \| Theory