Estimating the Scale and Geography of Global Poverty Now and in the Future: How Much Difference Do Method and Assumptions Make?

Estimates of the historic and future scale and location or “geography” of global poverty by income/expenditure have a long and contentious history. In recent projections made on global poverty, methods and assumptions vary so widely it is impossible to compare studies in a systematic way even on their estimates of current poverty. In light of this, we discuss the methodological issues arising and use a custom-built model to provide a new, consistent set of long-run estimates of global poverty to show the impact of different methods and assumptions on the scale and location of global poverty.