Evaluación empírica de dos hipótesis testeables del supermultiplicador sraffiano para Argentina 1993-2021

In recent times, Sraffian Supermultiplier Model (SSM) (Freitas & Serrano, 2015; Serrano, 1995; Serrano et al., 2019) has become prominent in both theoretical and empirical discussions within the demand-led-growth framework. The SSM has three distinctive features: the rate of growth of output is determined by the rate of growth of non-capacity generating autonomous expenditures; investment is an induced variable; and distribution is exogenous. This manuscript aims to test the first two features through different empirical exercises for Argentina, from 1993 to 2021. First, we estimate a Vector Equilibrium Correction Model using the Johansen method for cointegration analysis (Johansen, 1988, 1991) to provide evidence that the growth rate of output ultimately dependents on the growth rate of autonomous expenditures. The econometric method allows us to show that the autonomous components of demand are weakly exogenous variables, with output adjusting to long-run deviations between these autonomous components and GDP. The second exercise tests the existence of a mechanism that adjusts productive capacity to demand, based on the flexible accelerator principle. We use a VAR analysis to show that, in line with the SSM, investment share is Granger-caused by output.