Evaluating Phillips curve based inflation forecasts in Europe: A note

We run out-of-sample forecasts for the inflation rate of 15 euro-zone countries using a NAIRU Phillips curve and a naïve reference model. Comparisons show that the naïve model returns better forecasts in almost all cases. We provide evidence that the Phillips curves' goodness of fit is rather high. However, forecasting power is comparatively low.

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Year of publication:	2012
Authors:	Croonenbroeck, Carsten ; Stadtmann, Georg
Publisher:	Frankfurt (Oder) : European University Viadrina, Department of Business Administration and Economics
Subject:	Phillips Curve \| Forecasting \| Europe \| RMSE

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Series:	Discussion Paper ; 329
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Type of publication (narrower categories):	Working Paper
Language:	English
Other identifiers:	731461657 [GVK] hdl:10419/67114 [Handle] RePEc:zbw:euvwdp:329 [RePEc]
Classification:	C53 - Forecasting and Other Model Applications ; E31 - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation ; E37 - Forecasting and Simulation
Source:	EconStor

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010310920