Evaluating Phillips Curve Based Inflation Forecasts in Europe: A Note

We run out-of-sample forecasts for the inflation rate of 15 euro-zone countries using a NAIRU Phillips curve and a naïve reference model. Comparisons show that the naïve model returns better forecasts in almost all cases. We provide evidence that the Phillips curves’ goodness of fit is rather high. However, forecasting power is comparatively low.

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Year of publication:	2013
Authors:	Croonenbroeck, Carsten
Published in:	Credit and Capital Markets. - Credit and Capital Markets. - Vol. 46.2013, 1, p. 79-93
Publisher:	Credit and Capital Markets
Subject:	Phillips Curve \| Forecasting \| Europe \| RMSE

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Type of publication:	Article
Classification:	C53 - Forecasting and Other Model Applications ; E31 - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation ; E37 - Forecasting and Simulation
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010757765