Evaluating Phillips curve based inflation forecasts in Europe: A note

We run out-of-sample forecasts for the inflation rate of 15 euro-zone countries using a NAIRU Phillips curve and a naïve reference model. Comparisons show that the naïve model returns better forecasts in almost all cases. We provide evidence that the Phillips curves' goodness of fit is rather high. However, forecasting power is comparatively low.

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Year of publication:	2012
Authors:	Croonenbroeck, Carsten ; Stadtmann, Georg
Institutions:	Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät, Europa-Universität Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder)
Subject:	Phillips Curve \| Forecasting \| Europe \| RMSE

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Extent:	application/pdf
Series:	Discussion Papers. - ISSN 1860-0921.
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Notes:	Number 329
Classification:	C53 - Forecasting and Other Model Applications ; E31 - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation ; E37 - Forecasting and Simulation
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010984050