Evaluating production risks for wheat producers in Beijing

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to assess the production risk for winter wheat producers in Beijing, China, particularly in its 13 districts. Design/methodology/approach – A parametric approach is used to model wheat‐yield distribution for samples and the Kolmogorov‐Smirnov test is used to choose the most appropriate yield distribution. Parameters of the special yield distribution are estimated through the maximum likelihood estimation approach. Findings – The Burr distribution is found to be the most appropriate parametric distribution to model winter wheat‐production risks for the districts of Beijing, except in the districts of Fengtai and Shunyi. Findings also show that the Johnson family distribution is the most appropriate model for these two districts (SB for the Fengtai District and SU for the Shunyi District). The wheat‐production loss ratios of the Beijing districts are between 6 and 15 percent, which is considered medium range in most regions. The highest production risks are located in the Western regions of Beijing (Mentougou and Fengtai) while the lowest production risk is located in the Southeastern region of Beijing (Daxing District). Originality/value – To generate an objective yield trend and an accurate production risk assessment, linear moving average, instead of linear (or quadratic) regression, is used in this paper.