Evolution of heterogeneous beliefs and asset overvaluation
I analyze a model in which different agents have different non-rational expectations about the future price and cash flows of a risky asset. The beliefs in the society evolve according to a very general class of evolution functions that are monotone; that is if one type has increased its share in the population then all types with higher profit should also have increased their shares. I show that the price of the risky asset converges to the risk-neutral fundamental price even though all agents in the economy are risk-averse. The risky asset thus becomes overvalued as compared to the equilibrium with rational expectations. The overvaluation is a result of the evolution of beliefs and does not rely on such asymmetric assumptions as short-sale constraints or optimistic bias.
Year of publication: |
2009
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Authors: | Shapiro, Dmitry |
Published in: |
Journal of Mathematical Economics. - Elsevier, ISSN 0304-4068. - Vol. 45.2009, 3-4, p. 277-292
|
Publisher: |
Elsevier |
Keywords: | Heterogeneous expectations Evolutionary dynamics Overvaluation Selection mechanisms |
Saved in:
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