Exchange Rate Policy Credibility and Options Values

The current exchange rate policy is being argued about its vulnerability, especially at presence of an adverse external situation. In this context, it is important to check how market faces the credibility of such policy. This paper provides a way of measuring this credibility, using market's informations about exchange rate options and mathematical models to pricing derivatives which underlying variables follow a generalized Wiener diffusion process with discrete and infrequent jumps according to a Poisson process. The jump risk of a devaluation process is assumed systematic