Exchange rate reform and its inflationary consequences: an empirical analysis for China

In examining China's exchange rate policy in the reforming years, the paper finds empirical evidence of its long-run inflationary consequences, but the effects appear to be not sizable. In the short-run, while changes in the devaluation rate are positively correlated with the increase in the growth rate of inflation, the inflation inertia is also modest. the moderate inflationary cost of devaluation provides some explanation of the smooth transition of exchange rate policy regime in China and the authorities' ability to put more weight on external competitiveness.