Expected Inflation in Canada 1988-1995: An Evaluation of Bank of Canada Credibility and the Effect of Inflation Targets

Between 1988 and 1995 actual inflation in Canada fell while expected inflation did not fall as rapidly. The Bank of Canada made three attempts to signal its policy of lower inflation: a series of speeches from January to June of 1988, the announcement of inflation targets in February 1991, and the reaffirmation of inflation targets in December 1993. This paper finds that only the 1988 speeches reduced expected inflation. There is considerable evidence that inflation targets were credible and that the 1993 change in Governor was handled so that expected inflation both remained within the target range and continued to fall.