Expert projections on the development and application of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage technologies

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is a crucial element in most modelling studies on emission pathways of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to limit global warming. BECCS can substitute fossil fuels in energy production and reduce CO2 emissions, while using biomass for energy production can have feedback effects on land use, agricultural and forest products markets, as well as biodiversity and water resources. To assess the former pros and cons of BECCS deployment, interdisciplinary model approaches require detailed estimates of technological information related to BECCS production technologies. Current estimates of the cost structure and capture potential of BECCS vary widely due to the absence of large-scale production. To obtain more precise estimates, a global online expert survey (N = 32) was conducted including questions on the regional development potential and biomass use of BECCS, as well as the future operating costs, capture potential, and scalability in different application sectors. In general, the experts consider the implementation of BECCS in Europe and North America to be very promising and regard BECCS application in the liquid biofuel industry and thermal power generation as very likely. The results show significant differences depending on whether the experts work in the Global North or the Global South. Thus, the findings underline the importance of including experts from the Global South in discussions on carbon dioxide removal methods. Regarding technical estimates, the operating costs of BECCS in thermal power generation were estimated in the range of 100–200 USD/tCO2, while the CO2 capture potential was estimated to be 50–200 MtCO2yr−1 by 2030, with cost-efficiency gains of 20% by 2050 due to technological progress. Whereas the individuals' experts provided more precise estimates, the overall distribution of estimates reflected the wide range of estimates found in the literature. For the cost shares within BECCS, it was difficult to obtain consistent estimates. However, due to very few current alternative estimates, the results are an important step for modelling the production sector of BECCS in interdisciplinary models that analyse cross-dimensional trade-offs and long-term sustainability.