Exploring Brexit with dynamic spatial panel models : some possible outcomes for employment across the EU regions

Starting with a reduced form derived from standard urban economics theory, this paper estimates the possible job-shortfall across UK and EU regions using a time-space dynamic panel data model with a Spatial Moving Average Random Effects (SMA-RE) structure of the disturbances. The paper provides a logical rational for the presence of spatial and temporal dependencies involving the endogenous variable, leading to estimates based on a dynamic spatial Generalized Moments (GM) estimator proposed by Baltagi, Fingleton and Pirotte (2018). Given state-of-the art interregional trade estimates, the simulations are based on a linear predictor which utilizes different regional interdependency matrices according to assumptions about interregional trade post-Brexit.