Exploring the impact of digital inclusive finance and industrial structure upgrading on high-quality economic development : evidence from a Spatial Durbin Model

This study investigates the impact and mechanisms of digital inclusive finance (DIF) on high-quality economic development in China. Drawing on panel data from 281 prefecture-level cities between 2011 and 2021, we employ a Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) to analyze both the direct effects and spatial spillovers of DIF. The results indicate that (1) DIF has a significantly positive effect on high-quality development, which remains robust after conducting various stability and endogeneity tests; (2) DIF strongly contributes to economic upgrading in eastern regions, while its impact is weaker or even negative in central and western regions, revealing notable regional disparities exist; (3) a key finding is the identification of a double-threshold effect, suggesting that the positive influence of DIF only emerges when financial and industrial development surpass certain thresholds; (4) results from the two-regime SDM further show that spillover effects are more prominent in non-central cities than in central ones; and (5) mechanism analysis reveals that DIF facilitates high-quality growth primarily by promoting industrial structure upgrading. These findings underscore the importance of region-specific policy strategies to enhance the role of DIF and reduce spatial disparities in development across China.