False dichotomy alert : improving subjective-probability estimates vs. raising awareness of systemic risk
Philip E. Tetlock, Yunzi Lu, Barbara A. Mellers
| Year of publication: |
2023
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|---|---|
| Authors: | Tetlock, Philip E. ; Lu, Yunzi ; Mellers, Barbara A. |
| Published in: |
International journal of forecasting. - Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, ISSN 0169-2070, ZDB-ID 283943-X. - Vol. 39.2023, 2, p. 1021-1025
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| Subject: | Fat-tailed distributions | Forecasting tournaments | Proper scoring rules | Signal detection | Superforecasting | Systemic risk | Systemrisiko | Theorie | Theory | Prognoseverfahren | Forecasting model | Statistische Verteilung | Statistical distribution | Risiko | Risk |