Fiscal Discipline and Rules for Controlling the Deficit: Some Unpleasant Keynesian Arithmetic
In this paper we argue that rules are desirable in the conduct of fiscal policy. Since the market does not constrain federal borrowing, policy-imposed constraints are necessary to maintain fiscal prudence. A simple rule such as the annually balanced budget is sufficient for fiscal prudence but is extremely pro-cyclical. We explore the problem of specifying a rule which maintains fiscal prudence and permits counter-cyclical policy.