Fiscal forecasting: The track record of the IMF, OECD and EC

We analyse the relative performance of the IMF, OECD and EC in forecasting the government deficit, as a ratio to GDP, for the G7 countries. Interesting differences across countries emerge, sometimes supporting the hypothesis of an asymmetric loss function (i.e. of a preference for underprediction or overprediction), and potential benefits from forecast pooling.

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Year of publication:	2001
Authors:	ARTIS, MICHAEL ; MARCELLINO, MASSIMILIANO
Published in:	Econometrics Journal. - Royal Economic Society - RES. - Vol. 4.2001, 1, p. 20-20
Publisher:	Royal Economic Society - RES
Subject:	Fiscal forecasting \| Forecast comparison \| Loss function

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Type of publication:	Article
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005100092