Forecast of non‐alcoholic beverage sales in Taiwan using the Grey theory

This study applied the GM(1,1) model of Grey theory to forecast sales of eight sub‐category non‐alcoholic beverages in Taiwan between 2001 and 2003. According to our measured results, the accuracy of the new forecasting model exceeds 95 per cent. The validity of predictions using the new model is clearly high. The model estimates that the total beverages market will grow, but growth rates will vary for individual sub‐categories. In relation to current growth, from 2001 to 2003, tea drinks, carbonated drinks, functional drinks and sports drinks will experience decreased market growth, while bottled water and fruit and vegetable juices will be a high growth market and coffee drinks and other drinks will enjoy improved sales. These results provide a valuable reference for the Taiwanese beverage industry developing marketing plans.