Forecasting and Management of Technology

Cover -- Titlepage -- Copyright -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- 1 Introduction -- 1.1 About This Book -- 1.2 Technology and Society -- 1.2.1 Social Change -- 1.2.2 Technological Change -- 1.3 Management and the Future -- 1.3.1 Management and Innovation Processes -- 1.3.2 The Role of Technology Forecasting -- 1.3.3 The Importance of Technology Forecasting -- 1.3.4 The Role of Social Forecasting -- 1.4 Conclusions -- References -- 2 Technology Forecasting -- 2.1 What Is Technology Forecasting? -- 2.1.1 Models of Technology Growth and Diffusion -- 2.1.2 Technology Forecasting in Context -- 2.1.3 What Makes a Forecast Good? -- 2.1.4 Common Errors in Forecasting Technology -- 2.2 Methodological Foundations -- 2.2.1 The Technology Delivery System -- 2.2.2 Inquiring Systems -- 2.3 Technology Forecasting Methods -- 2.3.1 Overview of the Most Frequently Used Forecasting Methods -- 2.3.2 Method Selection -- 2.4 Conclusion -- References -- 3 Managing the Forecasting Project -- 3.1 Information Needs of the Forecasting Project -- 3.1.1 The Technology Manager's Needs -- 3.1.2 The Forecast Manager's Needs -- 3.1.3 Information about Team Members -- 3.2 Planning the Technology Forecast -- 3.3 Team Organization, Management, and Communications -- 3.3.1 Organizing and Managing the Technology Forecast -- 3.3.2 Communications -- 3.3.3 Summary Conclusions about Project Management and Organization -- 3.4 Success: The Right Information at the Right Time -- 3.5 Project Scheduling -- 3.5.1 Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) -- 3.5.2 Gantt Chart -- 3.5.3 Project Accountability Chart (PAC) -- 3.5.4 Project Scheduling Software -- 3.6 Conclusions -- References -- 4 Exploring -- 4.1 Establishing the Context-the TDS -- 4.1.1 Societal and Institutional Contexts -- 4.1.2 Technology Context -- 4.1.3 Stakeholders -- 4.1.4 Understanding the TDS.