Forecasting Technological Change : Insights from Theories of Evolution

This paper applies concepts from the theory of evolution in nature, such as adaptation, punctuated equilibrium, purposive selection, hierarchical selection, and self-organisation, to the analysis of technological change. Future technological trajectories are uncertain. However, it is possible to analyse the structure of technological trajectories using analogies from evolution. Scanning signals of change, developing anticipatory intelligence, and continuously assessing trajectories are the major initiatives or competencies required for improving our ability to predict future technological paths