Forecasting The Path of U.S. CO_2 Emissions Using State-Level Information
We compare the most common reduced-form models used for emissions forecasting, point out shortcomings, and suggest improvements. Using a U.S. state-level panel data set of CO_2 emissions, we test the performance of existing models against a large universe of potential reduced-form models. We find that leading models in the literature, as well as models selected based on an emissions per capita loss measure or different in-sample selection criteria, perform significantly worse compared to the best model chosen based directly on the out-of-sample loss measure defined over aggregate emissions. © 2011 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Year of publication: |
2012
|
---|---|
Authors: | Auffhammer, Maximilian ; Steinhauser, Ralf |
Published in: |
The Review of Economics and Statistics. - MIT Press. - Vol. 94.2012, 1, p. 172-185
|
Publisher: |
MIT Press |
Saved in:
Saved in favorites
Similar items by person
-
THE FUTURE TRAJECTORY OF U.S. CO
Auffhammer, Maximilian, (2007)
-
The future trajectory of US CO2 emissions : the role of state vs. aggregate information
Auffhammer, Maximilian, (2006)
-
The Future Trajectory of US CO2 Emissions: The Role of State vs. Aggregate Information
Auffhammer, Maximilian, (2006)
- More ...