Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation: Design, Implementation, and Demonstration

In this project we develop a new travel demand forecasting system that integrates demographic microsimulation with urban simulation and travel demand model systems. Our research objective is to identify the barriers in integrating complex simulation models and eliminate them by offering a demonstration of problems and solutions. The basic ingredients of this new model system are: a) a dynamic demographic simulator designed and tested with repeated observations of the same individuals in another context that will be transferred to a case study in Santa Barbara, CA; b) a modified version of the recently finalized Urbansim model that will also be calibrated with data from Santa Barbara, CA; and c) travel demand models that account for intrahousehold interactions and path based accessibility that were estimated with data from California. The model system is unique because it combines within a day and across years human behavior dynamics and it will push the frontier of modeling and simulation one step further. A demonstration of a pilot test is offered using data from Santa Barbara, CA.