Forecasting World Trade : Direct versus 'Bottom-Up' Approaches

In a globalised world economy, global factors have become increasingly important to explain trade flows at the expense of country-specific determinants. This paper shows empirically the superiority of direct forecasting methods, in which world trade is directly forecasted at the aggregate levels, relative to quot;bottom-upquot; approaches, where world trade results from an aggregation of country-specific forecasts. Factor models in particular prove rather accurate, where the factors summarise large-scale datasets relevant in the determination of trade flows

MoreLess

Year of publication:	[2013]
Authors:	Dées, Stéphane
Other Persons:	Burgert, Matthias (contributor)
Publisher:	[2013]: [S.l.] : SSRN
Subject:	Prognoseverfahren \| Forecasting model \| Internationale Wirtschaft \| International economy \| Theorie \| Theory \| Zeitreihenanalyse \| Time series analysis

freely available

Full text |

More access options

doi.org

Check Google Scholar

In German libraries (KVK)

I need help

Which error do you want to report?

Report: URL of this record is broken

Please note: Sometimes more than one URL is available for a resource. Please click on "More Options" to display these URLs

Report: Addition of an URL to that resource

Please note: Sometimes more than one URL is available for a resource. Please click on "More Options" to display these URLs

Report: The language(s) of that resource is/are…

Please note: Required language not in the list? Please use comment field

Report: Addition of an identifier to that resource

Report: report typo

Report: Add statement

Report: Add keywords

Please use the commentary box to describe other errors

Would you like to receive a feedback?

Commentary

Please type the code from the image

For general questions please use this address.

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012753643