Global climate policy scenarios for 2030 and beyond : analysis of greenhouse gas emission reduction pathway scenarios with the POLES and GEM-E3 models

The European Union is committed to limiting the global temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius by the year 2100. In 2007, the European Commission published a Communication on 'Limiting Global Climate Change to 2 degrees Celsius: the way ahead for 2020 and beyond', which explores ways for meeting this target. The Communication drew on scenarios developed by the Joint Research Centre IPTS. These scenarios and the underlying model toolbox are presented in this report. The report shows that a baseline development would lead to a continuous rise in global greenhouse gas emissions. If dedicated climate change policies and energy efficiency standards were introduced, global greenhouse gas emissions from energy use and industrial processes could be reduced to reach a level of 25% below that of 1990 by 2050. The 'GHG reduction scenario' takes a novel - yet realistic - approach by simulating an imperfect carbon market across sectors and regions. Reaching the 2 degree target pathway is feasible under these assumptions. One key element for achieving it would be energy savings and changes in the power sector. Furthermore, the use of 'flexible mechanisms' is found to be central for limiting the cost of an ambitious climate change policy.