Global Learning Loss in Student Achievement : First Estimates Using Comparable Reading Scores

We estimate the global impact of COVID-19 on student reading on standardized tests using PIRLS grade 4 data over time, including the 2021 survey with 313,000 students, representing the results of 16 million. We model the effect of closures on achievement by predicting the deviation of the most recent results from a linear trend in reading achievement using data from all rounds. Scores declined from 2016 to 2021 by an average of 33 percent of a standard deviation, roughly equivalent to more than a year of schooling. Losses are significantly larger for students in schools that faced relatively longer closures. While there are no significant differences by sex, it is shown that lower-achieving students experienced much larger losses. The COVID-19-related educational loss may translate to 0.68 percentage point reduction of GDP growth totaling a global loss of more than 80 trillion