Gravity Models in International Trade : A Specification Curve Analysis

The gravity model is widely used to estimate the effect of a reduction in trade costs on international trade flows. However, researchers face many analytical decisions in their choice for an empirical strategy. This paper uses a specification curve analysis method to study the effect of these choices on estimated trade effects. I find that despite significant heterogeneity in estimated trade effects, the distribution in the empirical international trade literature overlaps fairly well with the estimates in this specification curve analysis