Group-Based Trajectory Modeling Extended to Account for Nonrandom Participant Attrition

This article reports on an extension of group-based trajectory modeling to address nonrandom participant attrition or truncation due to death that varies across trajectory groups. The effects of the model extension are explored in both simulated and real data. The analyses of simulated data establish that estimates of trajectory group size as measured by group membership probabilities can be badly biased by differential attrition rates across groups if the groups are initially not well separated. Differential attrition rates also imply that group sizes will change over time, which in turn has important implications for using the model parameter estimates to make population-level projections. Analyses of longitudinal data on disability levels in a sample of very elderly individuals support both of these conclusions.