How Do Workers Perceive the Risks from Automation and the Opportunities to Retrain? Evidence from a Survey of Truck Drivers

Truck drivers who are most concerned about automation are, counterintuitively, also most likely to say they intend to reinvest in that occupation. This finding does not hold among drivers who are most familiar with the low costs of community college. This is consistent with a simple model in which noise in the perceived cost of retraining can lead to inefficient outcomes, which suggests that information provision can have large welfare consequences. However, we suggest that information provision about the true costs of retraining may not induce occupational switching if truckers believe wages for survivors will continue to grow