How Good Are Ex Ante Program Evaluation Techniques? The Case of School Enrollment in PROGRESA

This paper evaluates a microsimulation technique by comparing the simulated outcome of a program with its actual effect. The ex ante evaluation is carried out for a conditional cash transfer program, where poor households were given money if the children attended school. A model of occupational choice is used to simulate the expected impact of the program. The results suggest that the transfer would indeed increase school attendance and do more so among girls than boys. While the simulated effect tends to be larger than the actual effect, the latter lies within bootstrapped confidence interval

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Year of publication:	2009
Authors:	Bornhorst, Fabian
Publisher:	Washington : International Monetary Fund
Subject:	Bildungsverhalten \| Educational behaviour \| Mexiko \| Mexico \| Armutsbekämpfung \| Poverty reduction \| Kinderarbeit \| Child labour \| Mikrosimulation \| Microsimulation

Extent:	Online-Ressource (46 p)
Series:	IMF Working Papers ; v.Working Paper No. 09/187 IMF working paper ; WP/09/187
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Language:	English
Notes:	Description based upon print version of record Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Ex Ante Evaluation:Theory; A. A Model of Occupational Choice; B. Estimation and Identification; C. Impact Simulation; III. Ex Ante Evaluation: Results; Table 1: Weekly Earnings and Per Capita Household Income; Table 2: Reported Status; Table 3: Sample Means; A. Estimation of the Earnings Vector; Table 4: Estimation of Earnings Equation; Table 5: Actual and Imputed Earnings; B. Estimation of the Choice Model; Table 6: Estimation of the Multinomial Logit Model; Table 7: Accuracy of Model Prediction (K=1) Table 8: Estimation of Structural Parameters (K=1)Table 9: Accuracy of Model Prediction (K 0.5); C. Impact Simulation; Table 10: PROGRESA Transfer Scheme; Table 11: Estimated Transition Matrix; IV. The Benchmark: Ex post Analysis; A. Pre-Program Differences; Table 12: Pre-Program Differences: Boys; Table 13: Pre-Program Differences: Girls; B. Difference Estimation; Table 14: Difference Estimator: Boys; Table 15: Difference Estimator: Girls; Figure 1: Enrollment Ratio: Actual Effect of PROGRESA, D and DD Estimator; V. Comparison of Results and Discussion Figure 2: Simulated effect and D estimateTable 16: Simulation, D and DD Estimates, and Sensitivity to K; Table 17: Transition to Secondary School; VI. Concluding Remarks; VIII. Appendix; A. Key Elements of PROGRESA; B. Data Description; C. Method for Drawing Choice-consistent Residuals; D. Bootstrap Mechanism; VII. References; Footnotes
ISBN:	978-1-4518-7334-4 ; 978-1-4527-3392-0 ; 978-1-4518-7334-4
Source:	ECONIS - Online Catalogue of the ZBW

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