How Households Benefit From Pre-Announced Electricity Price Information : A Rolling Horizon Simulation With A Battery Storage System

The operational strategy of a residential energy storage system in a dynamic electricity tariff critically depends on the availability of information on future prices. If the storage charges electricity in times of low prices and discharges in times of high prices, households can reduce their electricity bill while potentially decreasing imbalances in the grid at the same time. Electricity providers may pre-announce and guarantee prices for a certain time period, e.g. the next six hours, to incentivize grid-serving use of storage systems. This paper aims to value pre-announced price information for a household with a photovoltaic roof system and a battery storage in a German case study. To determine the sensitivity of a household’s electricity bill towards limited external information on future prices, I evaluate different pre-announcement periods for prices with simulations in a rolling horizon approach. I use autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecasts to predict the photovoltaic production, the household’s consumption as well as electricity prices beyond the information given by the provider. Results indicate that pre-announced external price information of a 3-8 hour period is of major value for a statistically trained system. Pre-announcements beyond this period only have a marginal impact on the resulting savings for consumers. My findings and the proposed model help households and electricity providers to assess dynamic electricity tariffs and determine optimal structures for demand-side management