• 1 Introduction
  • 2 The Data
  • 3 Forecast Optimality
  • 3.1 Mean Forecast Optimality and Risk
  • 3.2 Bias of Mode, Mean and Risk Forecasts
  • 3.3 Risk Forecast Optimality
  • 3.4 Interpretation of the Test Results
  • 4 Robustness Checks
  • 4.1 Risk ForecastOptimality - A Qualitative Analysis
  • 4.2 Stability Over Time
  • 5 Possible Explanations for Poor Risk Forecasting Performance
  • 5.1 Endogeneity of Outturns
  • 5.2 Problems to Anticipate Risks inDeterminants
  • 6 Conclusion
  • A Appendix: Mode and Mean Forecasts and Realizations