How Sustainable are Sustainable Development Programs? The Case of the Sloping Land Conversion Program in China

Summary This paper undertakes a comprehensive assessment of the long-run sustainability of one of the world's largest sustainable development programs, the Slopping Land Conversion Program (SLCP) in China under different plausible post-SLCP scenarios. The analysis is based on farmer contingent behavior post-program land and labor decisions as well as choice experiment data. Our econometric results highlight the main obstacles to the program's sustainability, which include specific shortfalls in program implementation and certain institutional constraints, namely tenure insecurity and poor land renting rights. The use of a choice experiment also reveals unique evidence on rural households' preferences over tenure reform in China.