Identifying the Effect of a Welfare-To-Work Program Using Program Capacity Constraints: A New York City Quasi-Experiment

In 1999, General Assistance recipients in New York City were required to participate in a job-training and outplacement assistance program. Initially, recipients were enrolled in “waves” due to capacity constraints. The program's impact is identified using a quasi-experiment in which selectees are compared to concomitantly eligible non-selectees. Selectees are 15 percentage points more likely to start a job and 10 percentage points more likely to exit welfare than are non-selectees. This methodology is important, as random-assignment experiments can be costly and difficult to implement. Further, experiments are not impervious to criticism; this procedure addresses three of five known shortcomings.