Impact of Coronavirus Pandemic on Stock Index : A Polynomial Regression with Time Delay

Under contemporary market conditions in China, the stock index has been volatile and highly reflect trends in the coronavirus pandemic, but rare scientific research has been conducted to model the nonlinear relations between the two variables. Added, on the advent that covid-related news in one time period impacts the stock market in another period, time delay can be an equally good predictor of the stock index but rarely investigated. This study utilizes high-frequency data from January 2020 to the first week of July 2022 to model the nonlinear relationship between the stock index, new covid cases and time delay under polynomial regression environment. The empirical results show that time delay and new covid cases, when modelled in a polynomial environment with optimal degree and delay, do present better representation (up to 16-fold) of the nonlinear relationship such predictors have with stock index for China. The representative delay model is used to project for up to 17 weeks for future trends in the stock index. From the findings, the prowess of the time delay polynomial regression is heavily dependent on instability in covid-related time trends and that researchers and decision-makers should consider modeling to cover for the unsteadiness in coronavirus cases