Impacts of time-varying cordon pricing: Validation and application of mesoscopic model for Stockholm

This paper uses a simulation model to compare traffic and welfare effects of changes to the charging schedule currently in use in Stockholm. In particular, a step toll is compared to its flat counterpart at two charging levels. The increments between steps are also increased in a peaked step toll scenario. Furthermore, results from simulation of the current toll ring are compared to real-world measurements in a first attempt to validate model predictions regarding impacts of a time-varying congestion charging scheme. In the model, car users have the possibility to respond to congestion charging by changing departure time, route or switch to public transport and travel times are calculated using mesoscopic traffic simulation. Validation shows that departure time choice adjustments because of congestion charging are overestimated by the model that is based on stated preference data. This warrants further research on discrepancies between stated and revealed adjustments to congestion charging.