Implementation of the CAP policy options with the land use modelling platform : a first indicator-based analysis

This report presents the results of a study aiming to assess the environmental impact of two alternative scenarios for the new Common Agricultural Policy, evaluated by using the features of the Land Use Modelling Platform (LUMP). The first scenario set the baseline conditions in form of the Status Quo; the second was a policy alternative, Integration. The scenarios set the framework for the economic drivers as analysed by CAPRI, which the LUMP integrates to produce detailed and geographically specific projections of changes in land use/cover between 2006 and 2020. The changes in land use/cover were then evaluated for their impact on various environmental sectors by comparing their effect on a set of relevant indicators of environmental conditions. The simulations have shown that the greening options expressed under the Integration policy option produce an overall impact that can be measured with a set of land use/cover based indicators. In general terms, the greening options reduce the pressure on naturally vegetated areas and on environmentally sensitive sites. This modelling approach has proven to be applicable for the evaluation of the new CAP scenario and the implementation of policy options, in the frame of the overall objectives of the reform. Due to the characteristics of the modelling framework, the set of computed indicators shows the differentiation of the impacts at national and regional levels, allowing the assessment of the impacts of the new CAP in the proper geographical context.