Implementing Option Pricing Models When Asset Returns Are Predictable.

The predictability of an asset's returns will affect the prices of options on that asset, even though predictability is typically induced by the drift, which does not enter the option pricing formula. For discretely sampled data, predictability is linked to the parameters that do enter the option pricing formula. The authors construct an adjustment for predictability to the Black-Scholes formula and show that this adjustment can be important even for small levels of predictability, especially for longer maturity options. They propose several continuous-time linear diffusion processes that can capture broader forms of predictability and provide numerical examples that illustrate their importance for pricing options. Copyright 1995 by American Finance Association.