Implications of Emissions Limitation Protocols and Concentration Stabilization Trajectories for Developing (Non-Annex I) Countries

The ultimate objective of the Framework Convention on Climate Change - FCCC (UNEP/WMO, 1992) is stabilization of greenhouse gases concentration in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The concentration level and the time frame for stabilization are two vital aspects affecting this objective. These are not explicitly specified in the FCCC, although the references to cost effectiveness, sustainable development, integration of climate change policies with national development programs etc. in the statement of principles (Article 3, FCCC) provide some guidance for deciding these issues. Evidently, to achieve any reasonable stabilization target, the global emissions will have to decline to levels far below the present emissions (IPCC, 1995; Wigley et al, 1996). A specified stabilization concentration level can be achieved by an infinite emissions trajectories. An aim of the climate change limitation agreement is to choose a concentration target and a corresponding emissions trajectory which is cost effective