Implications of food production and price shocks for household welfare in Ethiopia: a general equilibrium analysis

This paper examines recent movements in domestic cereal prices in Ethiopia in light of world price movements and production trends, and then uses a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the effects of various types of shocks on prices, incomes and food consumption, particularly for poor households. Several basic scenarios are considered, including the implications of drought-induced livestock and crop production shortfalls in various regions of Ethiopia, world price increases and additional food aid inflows.